Author: Georgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi, exclusively to VK
Since the parliamentary elections of October 1, 2012 there have been a great number of analyses about the political consequences of the victory of the "Georgian Dream" movement of Bidzina Ivanishvili. There have certainly been significant changes. First of all, the power structure has undergone considerable changes, long-lasting reforms were initiated both in foreign and domestic policy.
But there is another interesting historical aspect that took place in October. For the first time in the history of Georgia the change of power was democratic. The first democratic parliament of the republic, elected in 1918, was dismissed by the Bolsheviks and certainly it is ridiculous to talk about any democratic change of power during the communist era. Even in 1990 the communists lost power not by democratic means but as a result of a bloody provocation arranged by the leaders of the nationalist movement a year earlier, on April 9, 1989. Elections which took place on October 28, 1990 only stabilized the newly-emerged reality. These events were followed by a military coup in January 1992, the "Rose Revolution" in 2003, and finally by free elections that took place on October 1, 2012.
After the elections, the best Georgian sociological research institution, Gorbi, together with WIN-Gallup International, conducted a special public opinion poll, a "global barometer of hope and happiness," which is often measured in many countries. The results of the global survey reveal the impact of the elections on the mood of Georgian citizens. Thus, according to the poll, 63 % of Georgians believe that next year will be better than last one. By the way, in Germany, with its strong economy, the indicator is only -46%. In Belgium it is even lower and amounts to -64%.
The "barometer of hope and happiness" shows the level of optimism in a society at a particular time in history. Gorbi explained that the results of the poll are produced by subtracting the number of pessimists from the number of optimists. The director of Gorbi, Merab Pachulia, notes that the level of optimism is an important factor in the development of business including the attraction of foreign investment. Even though economists claim that there is no direct correlation between these two factors, social psychologists think differently.
Most noticeably, Georgia remains one of the poorest countries of the former Soviet Union. Its GDP per capita is lower than in almost all former Soviet republics. A poll conducted by Gallup has also indicated that out of 60 countries Georgia has the 6th largest number of respondents who indicated that it was hard for them to feed their families. 23% of respondents answered in this way. In Nigeria this figure also amounted to 23 %. It is clear that the level of poverty in Nigeria is different from the level of poverty in Georgia and that Georgians and Nigerians were referring to "economic difficulties" of different scales. In Nigeria people might be thinking about being able to procure bread for their children, while in Georgia people would be probably concerned with their inability to buy them new shoes.
A specific attitude to billionaire Ivanishvili also plays its role. Most peculiarly, Georgian society is absolutely not irritated by his wealth. The fact that he is a billionaire does not bother Georgians. On the contrary, he is seen as a "role model." At the same time, paradoxically, this positive attitude is based on a logic which is inherent to Georgians: "He is no better than me, perhaps even the contrary. If he has managed to do it, then I can do it as well, as long as there is no Saakashvili in power, who would not let me to realize my potential and suppressed my talents with his repressive regime."
Certainly, Ivanishvili cannot fulfil all the promises, not only in terms of increasing pensions and wages, but also in terms of creating conditions for the development of entrepreneurship, since Georgia's traditional export markets remain inaccessible But a powerful charge of optimism which emerged in society after his victory at the elections will stimulate many areas. There is the question of whether Ivanishvili and his team will have enough political talent and professionalism to use this phenomenon in order to achieve positive results. But the example of Georgia proves that hope, even when it has no economic foundation, has great power. Just like the inalienable right of people to periodically change the people in power by means of free and fair elections.
