- By the nature of your work you spend most of the year abroad. Are
there any changes in the perception of Armenia abroad and, if so, what
are they?
- Changes are felt in the international structures, as well as from
individuals. The first one is, of course, related to human rights
violations and the failure to create a civil society and democratic
state of Armenia. This negatively affects all spheres in which Armenia
is trying to lobby its own interests, whether it's Nagorno-Karabakh,
Armenian-Turkish relations, or some other direction.
The second negative factor affecting the reputation of Armenia is the
present migration. Anyone who left their country has, at minimum,
social and integration problems in a new country, even if they have
funds. And usually a negative attitude develops against migrants, as
well as against Armenia, particularly in underdeveloped countries. I
constantly face these two factors.
- But at the same time, Armenia continues to regularly receive grants
and loan funds at concessional rates from the World Bank, the IMF and
other international financial institutions. What is the cause of this
immunity of the Armenian authorities?
- Loans provided by many financial institutions do not reflect upon
their assessment of the internal situation in a country to which they
grant. Loans are granted to a number of countries, starting with
Rwanda and ending with Afghanistan. So the policies of the
international financial institutions are aimed at preventing the
complete collapse of dilapidated financial systems of some countries,
since they ultimately have a negative impact on the global economy.
The volume of grants intended to promote democracy and civil society
in Armenia have been significantly decreased. In addition, by
providing funds to Armenia, even on concessional terms, some
international financial institutions create a political dependence on
the West. For sooner or later the loans will need to be returned and
the restructuring of loans and new lending to pay off the existing
loans might lead the country to a complete political dependence on
financial institutions.
- Controversies with Belarus were the result of slippage of the EU's
Eastern Partnership. Recently, the President of Armenia said that,
although the European partnership is a priority for Armenia, it
doesn’t seek to be a member of Europe. What are the objectives of the
Eastern Partnership with regard to Armenia, taking into consideration
its close relations with Russia, and what are the prospects of this EU
program?
- Prior to Serzh Sargsyan, I have repeatedly argued that Armenia is
moving in the opposite direction from the European Union. At the time
it caused widespread discontent in the pro-governmental structures.
Serzh Sargsyan said it, and everyone is happy. After all this, any
words about the criteria and values of Europe for Armenia are
irrelevant, since it is already clear that Armenia does not meet the
criteria of an EU member. At the same time, Bulgaria, Romania and the
Baltic countries were not ready for full membership in the EU either.
But they declared the strategy for EU membership a priority and took
all the necessary steps to remodel their societies, develop the
necessary legal system and move in this direction. It is not clear in
what direction Armenia is moving nowadays. The direction "from the
European Union" looks strange, since it does not represent either
Asian, nor even the Russian model of development.
Armenia has not even managed to find a temporary development model for
the transition period, which makes it, unfortunately, a country
without a state model of development. Recent upheavals in the
government once again testified to this fact. Until the last election
some people thought to create a pyramid of power based on criminal
elements. In Armenia, the authorities admitted criminals into
government, which led to the merging of criminals with the
authorities. One can thank the criminals for financial handouts, but
one cannot express gratitude for their "services" with public offices.
- How do you assess the work of the Armenian diaspora’s lobbying organizations?
- Recently it has become very difficult for Armenian lobbying
organizations to work. The diaspora, which is the power of Armenia,
should be united not on the basis of history, but on the basis of the
State homeland (whether you were born in Armenia or not). This,
unfortunately, is not like that. There are various Armenian lobbying
organizations conducting important work only at a local level. There
is no coordination between them. Plus, their work is affected by the
reputation of Armenia. Even the issue of recognizing the Armenian
genocide a long time ago moved out of the legal historical framework
to the political one, which enables us to consider the politics of
Armenia itself, and the structure of the state in particular. The
negative image of Milosevic and his associates led Yugoslavia to the
state we can observe nowadays. And Armenia with her, to put it mildly,
not-the-best institutions of government, cannot ignore that.
- Armenian politicians are already preparing for the 2012
parliamentary elections. Can you assess the situation and possible
prospects of people's choices?
- I will not try to assess the chances of political forces to win the
sympathies of the electorate, because, unfortunately, the electoral
resource in Armenian society is not a fundamental factor for success
in the elections. Signals coming from the power structures and
influential circles indicate that there have been no changes in the
government’s approach to the elections, clearly manifested in 2008.
The latest permutations in the power structure show only the desire of
authorities to appoint trusted and controlled entities in those places
that put pressure on voters, whether one is talking about municipal or
ministerial structures. In addition, there is a feeling of an on-going
accumulation of capital for the upcoming electoral battles. All the
financial and economic "privileges" of the population and the
increased tax burden on economic structures suggests that there is an
accumulation of funds in the budget of the state, as well as of some
oligarchs who have already spent on elections. The artificial
inflation, the artificial growth of the dram during the last year,
which cuts the transfers to the people controlling this area, should
also be mentioned in this connection.
If we take into account the monopolistic increase in prices, and what
happens with the sums taken from the plundered population, we clearly
see who will finance the next falsified elections of parties in the
government of Armenia in spring 2012. Illegally obtained money, thrown
out illegally by bribing or intimidating voters, is a violation of the
law. Unfortunately, Armenia has all the prerequisites for bribing the
electorate. According to various estimates, from 45% to 55% of
Armenia's population lives below the poverty line. On the other hand,
there are people who have access to money, but are unprincipled and
greedy people, willing to support the government for their own narrow
interests.
Interview by David Stepanyan, Armenia. Exclusively for VK.
