Experts and politicians have been voicing completely different points of view on the possible outcome of the Kazan meeting of the Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian presidents, due to be held on June 24. Political expert and journalist David Petrosyan tells VK his opinion on the possibility of signing a new agreement on basic Nagorno-Karabakh settlement principles.
- What possible scenarios of the Kazan meeting do you propose? Do you think a new agreement on the basic principles of a Nagorno-Karabakh
settlement will be signed?
- If a new agreement on the basic principles of a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement isn't signed in Kazan, this will become the main failure of this meeting in general and a personal failure for al three presidents in particular. Even if some other document is signed, it won’t compensate for the absence of new basic principles.
I would say that today we are closer to creating these principles than 10 years before, but that still gives us no guarantee of success. The mediators -Russia, the USA, France – are determined to resolve the conflict, but the conflicting parties still have opposite positions on several important points of the future basic principles, despite 4 years of negotiations.
- What impact will these principles have on the situation in the region?
- If they are to be signed they would provide a solid basis for future peace treaty negotiations. And, by signing this document, the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments will commit themselves to the peace process, as they will be legally deprived of any means of going back.
- If these basic principles are just a ‘Constitution of conflict settlement’, then what future steps towards this settlement should be taken?
- The mediators will have to work out a new agreement based on these principles, then this agreement will have to be ratified by all the parties’ governments. Apparently, the Nagorno-Karabakh state will also take part in this document’s creation. If the principles aren't signed during this Kazan meeting, I think the status quo will be maintained, at least for some time.
- Some experts say that a new armed conflict is possible. Do you agree?
- Yes, although I don’t believe that the chances of such a development are high. Both sides have considerable military resources, but for now the one who starts the fighting would find himself in a political vacuum without any support. During the Deauville summit, the Minsk OSCE Group co-chairs made it clear that the aggressor will be condemned.
- And if the principles are signed, what impact would it have on the region?
- If all goes according to the mediators' plan, Armenian troops will gradually leave the occupied territories, except for the Lachinsk region, and peacekeeping forces will replace them. Azerbaijani refugees will return to their homes, while Nagorno-Karabakh will be temporarily declared independent. Then a referendum to determine its permanent status will follow.
- And what would be Turkey’s position in this case?
- I think it will hail the process and this will give a new opportunity for an amelioration of Turkish-Armenian relations.
Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, exclusively to VK.
