The head of the ‘Caucasus’ Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, sums up the political developments that took place in Armenia in the passing year in his interview to VK.
- What event was the most important one in the political life of Armenia this year?
- The most important development was the search for a compromise between the ruling coalition and the opposition – the Armenian National Congress. I think they tried to work out some basic rules of interaction on the eve of 2012 parliamentary elections. This attempt by power and opposition to interact constructively was one of the most important trends of the year.
- Is it possible that this dialogue will contribute to a relatively calm election?
- It is obvious that the ANC is geared up for an election campaign and not for a revolution (for the first time in our history, I should mention). And I believe that, despite all the rhetoric, if the ANC gets a number of seats that satisfies it, it will agree to participate in our Parliament. This would signal the beginning of a new political era in Armenia. Up until now those political parties who lost the elections refused to recognize their legitimacy. Now we’ll have to wait and see whether the opposition would accept its mandates or declare the elections to be rigged.
- What would you say on the political picture of the year in general?
- There were three main trends. First of all, there was the abovementioned process of the coalition-opposition dialogue. Secondly, both political camps had to deal with internal contradictions. And thirdly, there was a personnel reshuffle in the government, aimed at reducing the influence of oligarchs and monopolists. This process isn’t yet complete, so we’ll have to wait and see.
- What key event is most likely to happen next year?
- Of course, it is the parliamentary election. Will the elites recognize its results or not? This is the main question.
- What was the most important event of the passing year as far as foreign policy is concerned?
- I think it is the ‘Eastern partnership’ program and the growing interaction with the EU. But close relations with Russia are also important.
- What are the results of the Nagorno-Karabakh process this year?
- It is generally accepted that all sides are experiencing disappointment after all the trilateral presidential meetings came to nothing. It is true that Russia’s attempt to settle the conflict was doomed to fail and now it is obvious that no solution to the conflict will be found soon. Experts understood this a long while ago, but now it is becoming clear to the general populations, however, the societies themselves have changed.
- What social changes are you referring to?
- Azerbaijan is allegedly constructing a wall on its border with Nagorno-Karabakh. I don’t know whether it’s true or not,but the very suggestion is symptomatic. No, it’s not Azerbaijan that threatens Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the positions are reversed. On the other hand, Armenia declares its intention to construct a highway from Sotok to the northern part of Karabakh – through the very territory that is supposed to be given back to Azerbaijan as soon as possible. You can see that the elites as well as the general populations of the countries in question have changed their attitudes towards the conflict. Azerbaijani can’t take the construction of the road lightly, nor can Armenians take the construction of the wall lightly.
- What is your prognosis on possible ways and terms of the conflict’s resolution?
- There is no possible solution that hasn’t been invented yet. Karabakh is more about the balance between the parties. And today it is impossible to resolve the conflict, as the Azerbaijani side isn’t ready for concessions acceptable to the Armenian side and vice-versa. But we should stop thinking of it terms of the 18th century and turn to 21st-century means of conflict settlement.
We need to change the nature of the society prior to resolving the Karabakh conflict – change the societies in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is ‘younger’ than all other similar conflicts, so why should it be resolved sooner than all of them?
We have decades of work ahead of us. I have no specific expectations for the next year or the year after that.
Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK
