Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, exclusively to VK
Almost four years have passed since Robert Kocharyan left the field of public politics. Nevertheless, the rumors of the possible ex-President’s return keep circulating in the media. Political expert David Petrosyan answers VK’s questions on possible implications of such a return.
- After the creation of a ‘Putin-club’ in Armenia the media has focused on the supposition that Russian power would bet on Robert Kocharyan. Is this assumption in any way realistic?
- The fact of the ‘Putin club’ creation and the possible support of Russia for Robert Kocharyan are in no way connected. ‘Putin clubs’ were created by pro-Russian forces, and after the first reports the public’s interest towards this issue dropped. I see no problem in it. Other Armenians support Sarkozy or Obama – it is connected to the fact that many of our people still live in diasporas in various states.
As for the second part of the question, it is true that Putin and Kocharyan have good relations on personal level and that the level of trust between them is pretty high. But I don’t think that Russian leadership would base its support to any political leader in a foreign state only on personal sympathy. And I’m not sure that the state interests of Russia dictate that Kocharyan assume the highest position in Armenia. It is most likely that nonintervention into Armenian election process is in the best interests of Russia. it should retain good relations with both power and the opposition: the ruling Republican Party, the ‘Prosperous Armenia” and the opposition Armenian National Congress. These are the three most important lines of cooperation for Russia.
- But is it true that Russian authorities trust Robert Kocharayan more than Serge Sarksyan?
- Even when Kocharayn was the President of Armenia, the things were not as unambiguous as you may think. In the beginning of his presidential term he was more pro-Western, he started close cooperation with Russia later. I think that the Russian government would continue to support the real power in the country, i.e. Serge Sarksyan. But of course it’s true that Russia cooperates with other political forces in Armenia, not only with the ruling party. All other foreign governments lead the same politics.
- And are other external forces interested in Kocharyan’s return?
- I don’t think that the US and Europe regard Kocharyan as a possible partner after the events of March, 1 2008. There is even an action filed against the ex-president (the “Citizens of Armenia against Robert Kocharyan” action), and this action is accepted by the Hague court. Even though Armenian territory is out of the Court’s jurisdiction, the very fact that the action signed by 50,000 of Armenian citizens was accepted by it is very important.
- So what is the main concern of the external players in the case of Kocharyan?
- First of all, he isn’t in power now. And he doesn’t possess any real political power, unlike the two other ‘candidates’ – the actual president Sarksyan and the ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who is supported by almost all opposition forces. The Armenian National Congress is a power to be taken into consideration, and the elections of the Razdan mayor proved it. Unlike the ANC, Robert Kocharyan doesn’t have any actual public support. He possesses wide financial capabilities, but it is not enough. Kocharayn can influence a number of TV-channels, he is close to vice-PM Gevorkyan – but the latter still works on the side of the government.
If Kocharyan had his own party that had some 10 parliamentary seats, the situation would have been different. But for now Sarksyan is in control.
- You say that Kocharyan has limited political resources, but he is the author of the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party project…
- It is rumored that Kocharyan is the patron of the ‘Prosperous Armenia’, but there’s no actual proof to it, apart from the fact that his government’s FM entered the party recently. Now the “Prosperous Armenia” Party leads an independent political line, so there is no real political force in Armenia ready to support Kocharyan.
