Vestnik Kavkaza
Last weekend, about two thousand pro-Russian activists seized the regional administration building in Donetsk, while nearly the same number of protesters occupied the administration building of the Security Service of Ukraine in Luhansk. The Interior Minister of Ukraine, Arsen Avakov, accused Moscow of orchestrating the riots, saying that "the next round of separatist violence in the east of the country had been organized and sponsored by Vladimir Putin." One of the major presidential candidates, Petro Poroshenko, said that "the attempt to destabilize the situation in the east of Ukraine is aimed at disrupting presidential elections."
Moscow has a very different view of the Ukrainian events. The head of the Center for Strategic Development of the CIS at the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Alexander Gusev, told Vestnik Kavkaza what he thinks about the events in Ukraine.
- What do you think about the future of Ukraine? Do you think it is possible to make any forecasts?
- I am considering the real scenario in Ukraine, which is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. Reality tells us that there is a need to sit down at the negotiating table, primarily for the Ukrainian political forces who are very diverse and who need to reach an agreement with the participation of Russia, the EU and the U.S. Our leadership has repeatedly talked about it and the EU has supported us in this regard. The Americans have not yet given a specific answer, although at the meeting between John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov, held in Paris, this issue was discussed. The Americans are inclined to believe that such a meeting is necessary, but with the participation of Ukraine, which entails a summit.
Our leadership is not very interested in this type of meeting, considering that the Ukrainian leadership is illegitimate. However, it is necessary to meet and talk.
As for the forecasts for the political situation in Ukraine, it seems to me that the elections in May need to be postponed. There is a need to go back to the agreements that existed in Ukraine on February 21. It was clearly stated there: first, constitutional reform and then presidential elections, elections to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's executive branch.
Primarily, the opposition must lay down their arms, they must vacate occupied buildings and then take on constitutional reforms. And only then elections at all levels, including municipal elections, can be held.
This is an important decision. It was already mentioned, but in order for it to be realized, one needs political will.
In this regard, a lot is determined by the position of the US. As long as the US does not order Right Sector to return to barracks, there can be no discussion of the agreement of February 21.
- If elections are held, who will win?
- I am absolutely convinced that if the elections take place now, Yulia Tymoshenko can be considered the winner of the presidential elections. She has the resources, charisma and political will for it. I think that neither Poroshenko nor the other 20 candidates can compete with her. She seeks power and she will get it.
- Is there a difference in the programs of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko?
- There are no significant differences between the candidates. Their entire platform is of a Russophobian and xenophobic nature. They do not take into consideration the losses that may result from the withdrawal of Ukraine from the post-Soviet space and from the termination of the contract with the CIS. Their programs are more popular. But there is a need for that now. For leaders registered as candidates, the political support of the people is more important than the economic one. But there is one very important point - how to count. The one who is going to count, is going to win.
- What does the South Caucasus lose from the withdrawal of Ukraine from the CIS?
- The Caucasus might lose something from it, including Azerbaijan and Armenia. Armenia will soon become a member of the Customs Union, Azerbaijan is an active member of the CIS. Georgia, of course, is not a member of the CIS, but nevertheless everyone is going to lose - the CIS as a whole, as well as independent countries.
