The price of a euro on January 13 has risen by 5.987 rubles to 74.3551 rubles, the dollar price by 6.4987 rubles to 62.7363 rubles. Analysts had anticipated rises and falls of the ruble value on the Moscow Exchange in early 2015. The dollar gained 10 rubles throughout the New Year holidays, S&P gave a negative forecast. In the light of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts, prices for Brent and WTI oil should fall to around $40 per barrel in the first half of 2015.
Alexander Abramov, the leading scientist of the RANEPA Institute of Applied Economic Research, said that the S&P ratings could provoke foreign funds to flee Russia. In his words, trading on January 5, 6 and 8 was too early to make forecasts. The expert added that the Central Bank will refinance banks with 7.5 trillion rubles via REPO deals, thus causing a fall of the Russian currency rate. Abramov assumed that the ruble worth may drop to 70-75 rubles per dollar, should S&P give Russia a negative rating.
Dmitry Piskulov, the chairman of the board of the National Currency Organization, explained that markets were working during the holidays on January 2-3 even in London. He believes that the opening of trading after the holidays will be followed by outflow of foreign capital from Russia.
Concerning rumours that the ruble price will drop to 100 rubles per dollar in February, Piskulov said that chances were 25%. In his words, an increase of dollar prices from 62 to 100 rubles per dollar was very unlikely, even at an oil price of $20 per barrel. He assumes that the Bank of Russia will take serious measures to prevent it. Abramov doubts such a significant fall in the ruble's value and predicts that the dollar will be worth 70-75 rubles.
