Erdogan has won the election and is aiming for the presidency

In Turkey, elections to the municipal authorities were held on March 30, which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won. The election results, which were seen as a referendum on confidence in Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan against the background of a number of scandalous trials of officials accused of corruption, the subject of much discussion last year, were unexpected for many people.

As a result, the Justice and Development Party won 48.5% of the vote, while the main opposition Republican People's Party won 23%. The other two largest parties were less successful: the National Action Party won 14%, and the Peace and Democracy Party - 7.5% of the vote. In some large cities the struggle was stubborn: in Istanbul and Ankara votes for opposition and for the government divided equally.
At the same time, as a number of Turkish political scientists noted in interviews with VK, the elections gave carte blanche to Erdogan’s further action in his political career, including the Prime Minister's additional dividend for the presidential and parliamentary elections.

According to the Turkish political scientist Muharem Sarikaya, the election results were predictable, as a number of opinion polls had also showed approximately the outcome of the elections.

He noted that talk about corruption and bribery of senior officials covered the entire election period, but Turkey did not pay attention to the negative processes around the government. "Today, after the elections it could be argued that Turkey ignored all these proceedings of the officials who were involved in corruption and who were demoralizing Erdogan’s party from inside, and the country opted for stability. One can say that Turkey voted in favor of independence, ignoring all the rumors and litigation in which a number of supporters of Erdogan are involved," he says.

The expert stresses that the outcome of the elections was influenced by the global economic crisis. "The Turks looked at developments in Europe and in other countries in the world, and at their own country, which lives safely, and voted in favor of this stability, ignoring all the negative processes related to the bribery of the officials. Precisely the economic stability of the country, which distinguishes it from other countries, determined the final decision of the voters," he said, noting that the winning party should thank only Erdogan, because he won the election, not the party. "The AKP victory is associated with the name of Erdogan, as the entire election campaign was built on his figure," Sarikaya notes.

However, he draws attention to the fact that other parties also showed unexpected results.

"We must pay tribute to the Peace and Democracy Party, whose representatives gained 7.5 % of the vote. Nearly all the eastern and south-eastern regions of the country voted for them. In this context, I would give them second place. The third is for the Republican People's Party," says the expert.

Sarikaya adds that rallies and clashes of those dissatisfied with the election results may start. "Perhaps there will be some protests, but I do not think they will turn into massive street protests," said the analyst, noting that the elections also showed the state of the opposition parties, which do not have enough resources to bring the masses onto the streets. "The fact is that the Republican People's Party and the National Action Party did not get enough votes from their constituents, and they are disappointed by the results. Because about 2 million young people voted for the first time in this election, and the important factor is that they, in spite of the authorities’ ban on Twitter and YouTube, voted for the AKP," says Muharrem Sarikaya.

In turn, the Turkish political scientist Adem Yavuz Aslan claims that the election outcome was unexpected. "Today you can see a great deal of discontent with the authorities in connection with corruption cases, but lack of confidence in the opposition decided the outcome of the election, and ultimately the victory remained with the AKP," he says.

He notes that Erdogan's party gained victory not without difficulty. "It cannot be considered a stunning victory, as the ruling party lost a huge amount of votes in several major regions. The Istanbul and Ankara votes are equally divided, and this will have an impact on the fate of the AKP," he says.

According to him, these elections can also be considered successful for the opposition, as it has won more votes than in previous years, but the loss in key regions such as Ankara and Istanbul belittles even this success.

The expert also does not rule out the unrest ofvopposition supporters, but expresses doubt that they will turn into a massive confrontation, as the authorities will pursue an aggressive policy against those involved in illegal activities.

"In his address to the nation immediately after the elections, already dubbed the “balcony statement", Erdogan put forward his main policy priorities, and today it is not a secret that he would run for the presidency. Given this, we can assume that the authorities will maintain a more aggressive policy," he concludes.

As the head of the Caucasus Strategic Studies (KAFKASSAM) Hasan Oktay notes, the election results came as a surprise, but the biggest surprise was that the Republican People's Party lost votes in Ankara, where they have traditionally been strong. "If the NPF had not lost the vote in the capital, Erdogan and his supporters would definitely have had a hard time. Erdogan just strengthened its position, and we can say with a high probability that he would run for the presidency in the next elections," he said.

But the analyst does not think that people will support the opposition en masse if the latter decides to protest the election results. "In Turkey there is a lot of talk about the defense of democratic values, and mass protests would not be completely democratic," concludes the expert.