The movement against the process of constitutional changes initiated by the Armenian authorities is gaining momentum. The changes are aimed at changing the state form of government from a parliamentary-presidential to a parliamentary republic. On September 12 the civic initiative 'You Won't Do It!' organized a conference with the participation of public and political organizations, at which it was decided to initiate nationwide opposition to the planned changes to the Constitution. The conference resulted in the creation of the union of political and social forces to fight constitutional changes – the front "No!", which opposes the reproduction of the ruling regime.
The main task of the front, which includes the parties 'Armenian National Congress' (ANC), 'Heritage', the People's Party of Armenia, 'Ayazn', the association 'National Self-Determination', the public organization 'Constitutive Parliament', 'The Union of Political Scientists of Armenia', 'Armat', 'March 1st' and 'Freedom and Democracy', the initiative 'You Won't Do It!', by organizing protest actions, ruins the adoption of amendments before the referendum, scheduled for the end of autumn. "It is not a reform, it is a completely new constitution. They are removing the old one and putting a new constitution on the table, which destroys the foundations of the state," the leader of the ANC, first Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan believes.
The creation of the 'No!' front became a response by opposition to the political consultations initiated by the authorities between President Serzh Sargsyan and representatives of political parties, the vast majority of which do not have political weight and consist of 5-6 people. Observers describe the consultations as a show for external forces in the face of the Venice Commission. This European structure gave a positive assessment of the changes, but recommended that the authorities adopt constitutional changes with consensus between political forces.
The 'No!' front has become an obstacle to the imitation process, which demonstrates political consensus, although its chances in the matter of stopping the process of constitutional changes are modest. The informational, human and financial resources are incomparable. An important role is also played by the passive attitude of society to the ongoing processes.
However, even with such a successful domestic political scenario for the government, it is not insured from the failure of its plans. We are talking about such an important component as the position of leading external players, who cannot remain indifferent to such an issue as the change of form of government in Armenia.
Publications about the fact that Moscow, which is demonstrating a very restrained and cautious position, is not interested in changing the form of government in Armenia, have repeatedly appeared in the Armenian press. In conditions of an unformed party system, a parliamentary form of government approval may lead to the destabilization of the domestic political situation. Destabilization would lead to a weakening of the political power, which can be fraught with the establishment of absolute power of officials who, unlike the politicians, are not accountable to society.
Some Armenian analysts do not exclude that the West could use this instability and start to influence the situation in Armenia through officials. After all, with the unstable and frequently changing political situation, it will no longer play a big role in who will become Prime Minister, President or Speaker. To what extent is it beneficial to Russia to have a union state with an established management system that enables other political centers to influence the internal situation in Armenia?
The working meeting between Presidents Putin and Sargsyan in Moscow on September 7 served as a kind of stimulus for the development of the described version. Information about the visit in the Armenian media was scarce, and the press service of Sargsyan did not circulate any official information about the meeting. This is an unprecedented phenomenon, especially in the case of Russia. The strange silence of usually very active representatives of the ruling party served as an indirect confirmation of the version of the negative position of Russia towards the issue of constitutional reforms in Armenia.
In this context, a number of publications in the Armenian media about the visit of Sargsyan to Moscow provoke interest. According to the opposition newspaper Chorrord Ishkhanutyun (Fourth Power), Sargsyan did not receive the support of Moscow in conducting constitutional reforms. The newspaper Hraparak (Square) writes about the possible cancellation of the reforms: "In Moscow, Sargsyan was persuaded to abandon the idea of constitutional changes. Moreover, cancellation will be issued on the basis of the democratic principle – by a vote in Parliament, according to the results of which the necessary number of votes for approval of the project will not be reached."
Events in October will show how correct the information of the media and the assessments of a number of experts are.
