An expert from the DGAP think-tank (the German Council on Foreign Relations), Stefan Meister, who is thought to be one of Germany's leading specialists on Russia, published an analytical article dedicated to Russian interests in Syria. According to the analyst, the focal point of Russian foreign policy is the United States. "On the one hand, the Russian leadership is watching the fall of US influence on the 'Arab street' and the lack of real progress in the fight against Islamic State. Moscow is trying to fill this niche, taking into account the growing skepticism of the Persian Gulf countries about the US. On the other hand, through its reinforced actions Russia is trying to increase its own importance to Washington in order to strengthen its bargaining position on the Ukrainian question. The newly-created format of negotiations between Grigory Karasin and Victoria Nuland shows a certain US-Russian rapprochement," the analyst said.
According to Meister, Ukraine and Europe are of rather secondary importance for the United States. The Middle East and China, by contrast, are the priorities of US foreign policy. And if Russia wants to negotiate with the United States on equal levels, it must be active in these regions. "The constructive role of Russia in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program showed Washington that cooperation with Russia is possible outwith post-Soviet space. President Putin is trying to use the activity in Syria to get out of the international isolation caused by the annexation of Crimea and the war in the east of Ukraine. Moscow's further objective is to support its key regional ally, Bashar Assad. Moreover, through the supply of advanced weapons to Syria, Moscow can demonstrate and provide them to other Arab countries," the expert noted.
"At the moment, Moscow is sending to Syria, first of all, the instructors and technical staff needed to train the Syrian military to handle new weapons. They also need military protection and support staff. At the same time, I do not think that Russia will decide to intervene in the Syrian conflict on a larger scale, since such interference will result in high costs of financial and human resources, and it is very difficult to calculate its outcome," the analyst believes. "There is also the question of whether Russia has the military resources to maintain a long-term Syrian campaign. The population of the Russian Federation for the most part will not support such a military campaign, as memories of the Soviet mission in Afghanistan are still quite fresh," Meister emphasized.
The expert believes that the Russian forces may carry out limited covert operations together with the Syrian army, but they will not go to an open ground attack. "Russia does not want to get caught up in the war against Islamic State, but wants to strengthen its own significance to the United States and to hold its ally Bashar Assad as a constituent unit of a solution to the crisis. The Russian leadership stirs up the West's interest in its activities without making clear the objectives and scope of its participation in the conflict in Syria. This enhances Russia's bargaining position, while Moscow does not have to act in Syria in full force," Stefan Meister stressed.
According to him, the Russian government acts pragmatically in its relations with Bashar Assad: "Assad is an important ally in the region, Russia's only military base outside the post-Soviet space is situated in Syria. It is an important element which allows Russia to continue to play a role in the Arab world as well as maintain its own global ambitions."
However, the analyst said that Moscow will not support Assad at any cost, because it distinctly calculates its own losses and expenses: "At the moment, Assad may help Putin to improve his own role in the dialogue with the United States, but if Assad is overthrown, the Russian leadership will live with it. Under no circumstances would Moscow sacrifice its soldiers because of Assad."
