The Turkish publication Today's Zaman wrote about whether Turkey win over Iran in the struggle for influence in the Caucasus. The agreement reached in the negotiations between Iran and the ‘Six’ international mediators led to a discussion about whether Iran is going to use its influence in order to get a foothold in the Caucasus region. It seems quite possible that the pragmatic policy of Iran in the Caucasus may change in the near future in the direction of increasing economic and strategic influence in the region. Most likely, the activity of Iranian politicians overshadows y passive approach of Turkey's relations with Russia and the countries of the Caucasus. What is the common position of Iran in the region today?
The current relations with Azerbaijan, for example, include cooperation in the spheres of the economy, energy and transport. Of course, a number of problems remains between the two countries, but it is clear that the leaders of both countries are willing to make concessions to each other to ensure full-scale cooperation. At the same time, since 1990 Iran has maintained a high level of relations with Armenia. According to analysts, most likely Iran's leaders will make a choice in favor of strengthening relations with Azerbaijan, not Armenia, but for the moment there are no distinct difficulties between the states, but there is a number of expensive joint projects such as the construction of new power plants, railway lines and roads, for example, roads that are important, first of all, to Yerevan.
In relations with Georgia, Iran is focusing on diplomatic partnership and support for various ethnic groups living in Georgia. Iran plans to shift the focus of the Georgian leadership from the West so that the whole country will have tangible benefits in the form of economic and strategic partnership. For Georgia, Iran is an important regional partner.
Thus, while Turkey is losing its credibility in the region, not maintaining partnerships with the countries of the Caucasus and Russia, Iran is making every effort to conduct joint projects with all the countries of the region at the highest level. Such a foreign policy of the Iranian government makes the country a strong player not only in the region but also in the international political arena.
***
The US think tank the American Enterprise Institute, analyzing the current situation in Turkey, wrote that the country is threatened by a territorial split. Malaysia and Singapore, Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo – all these countries at one time tried to defend their territorial integrity, but in the end agreed to a separation. According to experts, Turkey could be the next in this series of states. The Turkish government and Turkish diplomats will deny any possibility that a split is a possible future of the Republic, and US officials may even declare publicly that such a scenario is impossible, but the situation that has developed today in the Turkish Republic indicates otherwise.
The fact is that the confrontation with the Kurds that has started once again is playing against President Erdogan. In an effort to gain a majority in parliament and undermine the authority of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Turkish leaders did not consider the fact that such actions only strengthen the Kurdish position, while the credibility of Turkey in the world is collapsing. The policy of the Turkish authorities is not supported by such countries as Egypt, Libya, the Palestinian Authority, Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or even Saudi Arabia. Relations with Europe cooled earlier.
The new parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for November 1st 2015, can hardly be called democratic, and most likely they will not result in any visible changes, either in Turkish society or among the Turkish political elite. Obviously, the PKK has won the support of the entire south-east of the Republic. The charismatic Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas has already declared that the Kurdish population is demanding autonomy, instead of the curfew imposed by the Turkish authorities. This conflict within the state will invariably result in a split of the territory, which may take decades, but it is clear that sooner or later the Kurds will have their own state with its capital in Diyarbakir.
