Since the military parade in Yerevan on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Armenia's independence, the expert community is continuing to actively discuss operational-tactical missile complexes 'Iskander', made by Russia. A lot of things in this history are still unclear, and even such well-informed military expert as Pavel Felgenhauer is not 100% sure whether Russia sold 'Iskander' complexes to Armenia. It is widely believed that complexes showed during a military parade were from the Russian base in Gyumri. Recall that several photos of Russian servicemen from the 102nd base were published in social networks. They drove modern military equipment in the streets of Yerevan. It just increased suspicions that demonstrated 'Iskander' missiles have been "rented." There is still no official confirmation from the Russian Defense Ministry and the 'Rosoboronexport'.
On the other hand, it is impossible not to mention the statement of the Russian Ambassador to Armenia Ivan Volynkin, who indirectly confirmed the sale of 'Iskander' complexes' export version with a range of 280-300 km to the Armenian army. In particular, Volynkin said in an interview with 'Azatutyun' radio that this sale indicates that there are corresponding agreements between the two countries, as well as allied and fraternal relations between them. Such statements of the Russian diplomat on such urgent for the South Caucasus topic must have been agreed with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation in advance. Another indirect confirmation that these complexes were sold to Armenia is the reaction of the Azerbaijani side. The Minister of Defense Industry Yaver Jamalov announced Azerbaijan's intention to establish its own production of ballistic missiles with a range of 280 km during the international defense exhibition ADEX 2016. Although practical need for such long-range missile complexes for the Azerbaijani army in the context of the conflict with Armenia is not entirely clear, it rather was a psychological factor (demonstration of complete military superiority over Armenia), as well as Azerbaijan's desire to develop a promising export area of its own defense industry.
Just like that, in our opinion, 'Iskander' missile complexes appearance at the military parade in Yerevan pursues, first of all, domestic political goals. The military and political leadership of the country wants to calm the Armenian society after serious losses (including territorial) in Nagorno-Karabakh during the April clashes with Azerbaijan, and this demonstration creates an opportunity for informational 'brainwashing' of the population. In recent weeks, the Armenian government adopted a package of measures aimed to reduce the degree of social discontent, dismissing the government headed by Hovik Abrahamyan, who lost the population's support, as well as giving people "a spectacle" in the form of 'Iskander' complexes. Just like in 2015, the official Yerevan used "Maidan" card in relations with Moscow, asking Russian partners to hurry and transfer weapons at a preferential loan of $200 million. By the way, this loan, along with a discount on gas, has been received after 'Electric Yerevan' protests, which really looked like similar Western scenarios in the post-Soviet space. At the time Yerevan actively used Moscow's concerns about the possibility of a color revolution in Armenia amid growing social unrest to achieve its goals. Unfortunately, anti-Russian sentiments are already a standard thing in the Armenian society for many years, and the Armenian diplomacy in the West often presents Armenia as a " Christian country that wants to be in the EU, but is repressed by authoritarian Russia", to win the sympathy of European and American politicians.
Theoretically, if the Armenian army really has 'Iskander' complexes, then missiles can reach Baku. However, it should be noted that these operational-tactical missile complexes poses a threat of total destruction and can change the course of the hostilities only if the missiles will have a nuclear warhead. Considering a pretty high price of each missile, active use of 'Iskander' complexes by Armenia is out of question. But the events of recent past suggest that official Baku should be on guard due to the notorious statement of the former Prime Minister of Armenia about a "dirty bomb", created by the Armenians. Moreover, in April of this year Armenian smugglers have already attempted to sell uranium-238 from Metsamor NPP at the black market for $200 million, which at least indicates a lack of proper control over radioactive wastes in Armenia. But it is likely that neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia are planning to attack the capitals. And if the war in Nagorno-Karabakh breaks out once again, then it will be more like a counter-terrorist operation against the Armenian separatists and the Armenian Armed Forces in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. A possible theater of military operations will be limited to occupied territories, especially since both sides of the conflict are restrained by the CSTO and Turkey. But wars never follow a planned scenario and the issue of "dirty bomb" in the context of possible deliveries of 'Iskander' missile complexes to Armenia becomes relevant once again.
