Iran war may deal heavy blow to tourism industry in Turkey - report

Turkey may lose up to $25 billion in tourism revenue due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, as geopolitical tensions directly impact the travel sector, the Ekonomim business newspaper reported.

"The economic impact of the war in the Middle East cannot be assessed solely through oil prices. Tourism, aviation, real estate, and the service sector are the first to react to geopolitical shocks because their primary driver is the perception of security," the newspaper reports.

As military risks increase, tourists begin postponing trips, and airlines adjust routes. This impacts revenues for restaurants, retail, and other industries dependent on tourism.

Tourism revenue makes up a significant portion of Turkey's budget. According to the publication, a 10% decline would cost the country at least $6 billion, with an additional 7-8% drop in monetary turnover from tourism-related sectors - transportation, restaurants, and retail.

A 25% reduction in tourist arrivals would bring more serious consequences - losses of around $15 billion. In the most negative scenario, losses may reach $24-25 billion.

This would severely impact a substantial portion of the service sector: restaurant, transportation company, and retail turnover may contract by 25-30%, while resort regions would face increased risk of business closures and rising unemployment, the article claims.

The TÜRSAB association has warned that rising oil prices may increase transportation costs, while some regional travel flows have already been suspended. However, tourism representatives at the ITB Berlin fair expressed continued confidence in Turkey as a destination, though prolonged conflict may threaten growth targets.