IMF forecasts growth in Azerbaijans non-oil economy

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Azerbaijan’s non-oil economy will grow by around 4% in 2026.

The IMF noted that an increase in non-oil economic growth to 3.7% will be possible amid favorable base effects and the assumption that oil prices will remain at elevated levels.

According to the IMF, overall economic growth in Azerbaijan is expected to be around 2.5% in 2026 and to remain at approximately this level in subsequent years.

This recovery reflects a gradual normalization of the economy following weaker growth observed in 2025. In particular, oil sector output is expected to decline by only 0.5% in 2026, indicating that the negative impact on overall economic growth will be limited.

The Fund also commented on regional forecasts, stating that economic growth in the Central Caucasus and Central Asia region is expected to remain at 4.7% in 2026. This performance is linked to credit expansion, fiscal stimulus measures, and rising hydrocarbon production.