U.S. intelligence agencies have warned President Donald Trump that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine his effort to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran, The Washington Post reported, citing U.S. officials.
Israel appears intent on maintaining military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, an aim that would flout a core element of the fledgling agreement that calls for an end to hostilities in that country, according to intelligence reports.
If Netanyahu redoubles his military campaign in Lebanon, he would not only threaten the framework for an agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran, but he could rupture the relationship with an American president that has been integral to his political fortune.
The new U.S. intelligence report concludes that in the face of national elections this fall, Netanyahu’s political survival is linked to showing his domestic audience that he will not withdraw troops from Lebanon and that he is intent on escalating the fighting with Hezbollah.
The U.S. intelligence report also describes Israel’s frustration with the terms of the Trump peace memorandum, which undermine its broader objective of maintaining maximum pressure on Tehran.
The report conveys Israel’s perception that the agreement could constrain its ability to defend itself against Hezbollah.
The report reflected that any suspension of hostilities or withdrawal from Lebanon will be seen in Israel as a defeat for Netanyahu.
“Israeli military activity in Lebanon is for the sole purpose of defending Israeli citizens from continuous attacks by Hezbollah,” a senior Israeli government official said.
Even if Israel does not escalate fighting in Lebanon by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut, Hezbollah’s seat of power, its refusal to withdraw troops from the country’s south is likely to doom the fragile accord between the U.S. and Iran, a second U.S. official said.
"Continuing to occupy part of Lebanon is a recipe for disaster. Without a full Israeli withdrawal, the likelihood of resumed hostilities between the [Israeli military] and Hezbollah is all but certain," the official said.
