Global commodity prices are projected to surge 23% in 2026 to their second-highest level since 2013 due to the Middle East conflict, Black Sea shipping disruptions and weather shocks, the World Bank said.
In its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook report, the bank forecast that overall commodity prices will retreat by 7% in 2027 and 8.8% in 2028 as supply constraints gradually ease.
Energy prices are set to jump 32% this year before falling 11.5% in 2027, representing upward revisions of 7% for 2026 and 14% for 2027 compared to the bank's April projections.
Global oil supply is expected to drop by 5.5 million barrels per day, or 5.2%, in 2026, marking the largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 pandemic recession.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before receding to $79 per barrel in 2027 and $70 in 2028.
Higher prices and supply shortages are projected to cut global oil consumption by 2.5%, or 2.6 million barrels per day, this year, the third-largest annual drop on record after 2020 and 1980.
European natural gas prices are forecast to surge 58.3% in 2026 to $19 per million British thermal units amid depleted liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, before easing 7.9% in 2027.
The report warned that in an adverse scenario involving an escalation in the Middle East conflict, prolonged Russian oil outages and severe El Nino crop losses, Brent crude could average $105 per barrel in 2027.
