Speaking on the air of "Right to Know" program, political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov answered a question from TV and radio host Gia Saralidze about the impact of the Iranian conflict on Russia and the South Caucasus.
Saralidze asked whether developments around Iran directly influence events in the post-Soviet space and the South Caucasus, and whether this creates any additional opportunities or difficulties from the perspective of Russia's interests.
Lukyanov first noted that it is difficult to imagine opportunities opening up against the backdrop of a military operation against a country that is a partner of Russia.
"As for the possibilities, I can't imagine a major war against a country that isn't our ally, but is a fairly important partner and generally treats us well. There's nothing good about that, and there can't be anything good about that",
Fyodor Lukyanov said.
He explained that the US and Israel are trying to weaken the Islamic Republic so it no longer poses a threat, but if they go too far, everything could fall apart and chaos could ensue.
"If Iran is weakened enough that it takes a long time to recover, it will be pushed hard, knocked out of the balance or polygon that exists. But it's very difficult to stop at any point. That's it, stop, enough. Iran is now weak enough not to pose a threat, but strong enough not to fall apart and create chaos. So it's very difficult to say. I don't think there's anything good in that for us."
Fyodor Lukyanov said.
Lukyanov recalled that Iran is a country with very specific interests and a very specific ideology, though it is difficult to recall Iran playing any destructive role in the region that would not suit Russia.
"The very fact that such events are happening there certainly resonates. It's clear that Azerbaijan is primarily tied to this due to cultural and ethnic boundaries",
Lukyanov noted.
According to the political scientist, if current events had occurred five or six years ago, when Iran was Armenia's only escape route, it would have had a greater impact on Armenia than now.
"That's not the case now, but everyone is certainly very afraid that Iran will reach some kind of outright collapse, and then, yes, then everything will crumble. In this sense, Israel's position, in my opinion, is the most dangerous."
Fyodor Lukyanov said.
He explained that Israel does not care what happens inside Iran, whether the state continues to exist or not. Furthermore, Israel is not afraid of a flood of refugees from Iran.
"We understand that refugees won't flee Iran to Israel. But they probably could to the South Caucasus and even the North Caucasus. Therefore, I would say there isn't a direct impact here yet, but the indirect and, most importantly, potential impact is very negative",
Lukyanov concluded.
